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Integrated Power Utilities in Ukraine: Kyivenergo

Автор: Конкорд Консалтинг - 28.09.2007 - 21 стр.
ID (номер): 2610
Версия для печати


Дата выхода:28.09.2007
Количество страниц:21
Язык отчета:Английский
Способ предоставления:В электронном виде
Цена:1000 грн.
Оплата:безналичные
Доставка:бесплатно, e-mail



TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Market and corporate issues
Stock performance
Ownership structure: A roaming 12.7% stake
Lease agreement prolonged until 2016

2. Interim financials: Harmed by heat losses

3. Electricity segment: Profit generator
Optimization of electricity output
Hysteresis in fuel efficiency
Distribution segment: Profits are growing
RAB-based tariff policy to raise segment’s cash flows
Remains one of the least efficient in Ukraine
Compensation to generate USD 3.7 mln in profit in 2Q-4Q

4. Unprofitable segment: Heating
Meaningless for valuation
Heating losses: Compensation still not effectual
New subsidiary will take on heating losses?

5. Investment projects
Total needs 2007-2011 – USD 575 mln
CHPP-6/3: Still needs USD 160 mln

6. Valuation
Net debt adjustments
Source: Company data, Concorde Capital estimatesValuation of integrated business
Valuation of integrated business
Russian Energos
EU peers
Valuation by value-creating segments
Generation segment
Ukrainian peers
Abridged DCF
Power distribution segment
Valuation by RAB
Valuation by local peers
Putting the two parts together
Implied EV by SOTP valuation, USD mln
Valuation summary

7. Analyst certification

CHARTS

KIEN vs PFTS
Performance
Financial summary, USD mln
Kyivenergo EBITDA for 2007E
Loaded capacity, Jan.-Aug.
Sources of Kyivenergo’s electricity supplied to consumers, GWh
Electricity capacity load and fuel efficiency
Electricity losses in excess of allowed level (7M07), % of electricity inflow
Losses from heating segment, USD mln
Implied KIEN price by SOTP*, USD per share
Implied KIEN share price, USD

TABLES

Kyivenergo ownership structure
1H07 financial summary, USD mln
Net debt, EoY 2007
Russian Energos’ summary, USD mln
Valuation by Energos
EU electricity holdings’ summary, USD mln
Valuation by EU electricity holdings
Valuation by Russian TGKs, USD mln
Valuation by Ukrainian GenCos, USD mln
Operating model assumptions, USD
Free cash flow components, USD mln
DCF model output, USD mln
RAB calculation
Valuation by Oblenergos, summary, USD mln
Implied EV by SOTP valuation, USD mln

 

 

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