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Ukrainian Steel

Автор: Конкорд Консалтинг - 19.10.2007 - 57 стр.
ID (номер): 2616
Версия для печати


Дата выхода:19.10.2007
Количество страниц:57
Язык отчета:Английский
Способ предоставления:В электронном виде
Цена:1 500 грн.
Оплата:безналичные
Доставка:бесплатно, e-mail



TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Investment Summary

2. Investment Opportunities
ENMZ
DMPZ
AZST
DMZP

3. Stock market monitor

4. Valuation summary

5. Local M&A activity is on the rise
The largest-ever Ukrainian M&A shook up the sector
Hawks and doves
HAWKS
DOVES
PRIVAT: LEAVING THE BOAT
Big talks have started
Industrial Union of Donbas
Midland Resources
Sorting players by acquisition attractiveness

6. Efficiency: Room for improvement
Gas issue – Not a problem
Efficiency programs are on track

7. Market outlook: Favorable for a few
Production driven by integrated producers
Export outlook: Upbeat
Competing for the domestic market
Growth in long prices outperforms flat products

8. Cleaning up reported financials

9. Forecast revisions

10. Valuation
Comparison with Russian peers
Comparison with international peers
Comparison with international specialty steel producers

11. Company profiles

11.1 Enakievo Steel
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Pig Iron Output - chart

11.2 Donetsk Metal Rolling
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Steel Products Output - chart

11.3 Azovstal
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Crude Steel Output - chart

11.4 DMP Petrovskogo Steel
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Steel Products Output - chart

11.5 MMK Illicha Steel
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Crude Steel Output - chart

11.6 Dniprospetsstal
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Crude Steel Output - chart

11.7 Alchevsk Iron & Steel
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Crude Steel Output - chart

11.8 Donetsk Steel Plant
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Steel Products Output - chart

11.9 Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Crude Steel Output - chart

11.10 Zaporizhstal
INVESTMENT CASE
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION – table
STOCK OWNERSHIP – table
MARKET MULTIPLES – table
KEY RATIO – table
Crude Steel Output - chart

12. Appendix: Domestic steel group snapshots
Metinvest Holding
Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih
Industrial Union of Donbas
Illych Stal
Privat group
Vtorsyrovina
Donetskstal group
Midland group

13. Analyst Certification


CHARTS

Ukrainian Steel Index vs. PFTS
Stocks performance, YTD
Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih - Spread, %
Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih - Trading volumes, ths mln
Azovstal - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Azovstal - Spread, %
Azovstal - Trading volumes, ths mln
Alchevsk Iron & Steel - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Alchevsk Iron & Steel - Spread, %
Alchevsk Iron & Steel - Trading volumes, ths mln
Enakievo Steel - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Enakievo Steel - Spread, %
Enakievo Steel - Trading volumes, ths mln
DMK Petrovskogo - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
DMK Petrovskogo - Spread, %
DMK Petrovskogo - Trading volumes, ths mln
Dniprospetsstal - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Dniprospetsstal - Spread, %
Dniprospetsstal - Trading volumes, ths mln
Donetsk Metal Rolling - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Donetsk Metal Rolling - Spread, %
Donetsk Metal Rolling - Trading volumes, ths mln
MMK Illicha Steel - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
MMK Illicha Steel - Spread, %
MMK Illicha Steel - Trading volumes, ths mln
Donetsk Steel Plant - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Donetsk Steel Plant - Spread, %
Donetsk Steel Plant - Trading volumes, ths mln
Zaporizhstal - Price vs PFTS and MSCI Steel indexes
Zaporizhstal - Spread, %
Zaporizhstal - Trading volumes, ths mln
Recommendations and upsides
12M target price vs. market multiples implied prices range, USD per share
Metinvest and SCM-related metals & mining assets on the map
Metinvest Holding - production as % of Ukrainian total*, ths mt
Metinvest Holding - crude steel production, ths mt
Integration by company, %
EBITDA margin of Privat’s steel assets, %
Gas consumption in blast furnace and steel smelting processes, mln m3 p.a.
Crude steel production by process, %
Energy charge in pig iron smelting
Steel consumption by region growth
GDP growth 2006-2010, % CAGR
Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Total (down 2.9% yoy)
Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Long products (up 7.8% yoy)
Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Semi-finished products (down 8.6% yoy)*
Ukrainian exports in 7M07, ths mt - Flat products (down 3.1% yoy)
Ukrainian steel consumption, ths mt - breakdown by product
Ukrainian steel consumption, ths mt - forecast by 2015
Ukrainian steel prices, USD/mt - Export (Black Sea, FOB)
Ukrainian steel prices, USD/mt - Domestic*
1H07 sales growth by contributor, %
Steel prices growth in 1H07, % YOY
Transfer pricing vs EBITDA margin, % (1H06 vs 1H07)
P/E vs. Sales growth ‘08E
EV/S vs. EBITDA mgn


TABLES

Programs aimed at increasing efficiency
Investment programs
Ukrainian rolled steel production growth in 1H07
Ukrainian crude steel production by 2012E, mln mt
1H07 Ukrainian steel financials and 8M07 production of rolled steel
Financial revisions
Upsides/downsides implied by market multiples
Comparison with Russian peers
Comparison with international peers
Comparison with international specialty steel producers
Metinvest Holding
Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih
Industrial Union of Donbas
Illych Stal
Privat group
Vtorsyrovina
Donetskstal group
Midland group





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