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Ukrainian Real Estate / Украинская недвижимость

Автор: Конкорд Консалтинг - 12.12.2007 - 65 стр.
ID (номер): 2622
Версия для печати


Дата выхода:12.12.2007
Количество страниц:65
Язык отчета:Английский
Способ предоставления:В электронном виде
Цена:2 000 грн.
Оплата:безналичные
Доставка:бесплатно, e-mail



Solid real estate industry fundamentals in Ukraine have created a favorable environment for domestic developers who are increasingly tapping the international equity market. With the arrival of several new placements, the issue of increased guidance in the sector is coming to the forefront and with this in mind our report is focused on a quantitative comparison of the developers’ project portfolios.

Ukrainian real estate investors tend to focus their attention on the size of project portfolios. With new stocks flooding into the sector, this approach is becoming less effective in stock selection. In this report, we introduce a set of metrics that will help investors make a more informed choice. The metrics take into account portfolio quality and consider its risk characteristics related to construction schedule feasibility, cash flow timing, concentration and sensitivity to underlying assumptions. We compare the project portfolios of Ukraine’s public developers using the same uniform approach

Солидные фундаментальные показатели сектора недвижимости в Украине создали благоприятную обстановку для отечественных девелоперов, которые продолжают выходить на зарубежные фондовые рынки. В данном исследовании мы сфокусировались на количественном сравнении проектных портфелей девелоперов.

Украинские инвесторы в недвижимость склоняются к фокусированию их внимания на размере проектных портфелей. С наполнением сектора новыми акциями, данный подход в выборе акций становится менее эффективным. В данном отчете мы представляем набор инструментов, которые предоставят больше информации инвестору для выбора решения. Инструменты учитывают качество портфеля и рассматривают риски относительно срывов расписания строительств, терминов денежных потоков, концентрации и чувствительности к вышеописанным допущениям. Мы сравниваем проектные портфели украинских девелоперов, используя унифицированный подход.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Investment thesis
Investment summary
Portfolio risk and feasibility gauged
Core findings on stocks covered
What investors want: Value appreciation vs. cash generation
Stock performance, YTD
Stock performance, USD
Real estate indices, YTD
Sector summary

2. Market overview
Macro background
Kyiv real estate market
Retail market
Office market
Warehousing market
Residential market
Hotel market
Regional real estate market
Key domestic players
Completed and projected development in Ukrainian real estate market  by leading domestic players, ths m2
Foreign entrants mounting

3. Stock market: What’s on the menu?
New names emerging
Placement statistics
Funds raised through equity placements*, USD mln
Growth in the pipeline
Free float of Ukrainian real estate stocks, USD mln
Free float breakdown, Dec 07
XXI Century MCap and NAV
TMM MCap and NAV
P/NAV for XXI Century
P/NAV for TMM
Selection an issue
Ukrainian real estate stock market

4. Portfolio analysis
Portfolio feasibility and risk
Findings
Project management metrics
Valuation risk metrics
Cash flow and sensitivity analysis
XXI Century
TMM
TKS
Construction schedule comparison
XXI Century
TMM
TKS

5. Valuation
Valuation summary
Target price derivation*, USD mln
Note on XXI Century’s valuation
DCF mechanics
Major assumptions
WACC assumptions
XXI Century: Impact of financing availability on value
XXI Century 12M targets sensitivity to funds attracted, USD mln
Portfolio value evolution, USD bln

6. Reading financial statements
Accounting differences
Companies’ financials, USD mln
XXI Century financials restatement, USD mln

7. Company profiles
7.1 TKS
Investment case
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Key financials, USD mln
Portfolio NPV breakdown by segment
Share price performance*
Business overview
TKS portfolio
TKS Income statement summary, USD mln
TKS Balance sheet summary, USD mln
TKS Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange rates
Investment case
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Key financials, USD mln
Portfolio NPV breakdown by segment
Share price performance*

7.2 TMM
Business overview
TMM portfolio
TMM Income Statement Summary, USD mln
TMM Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
TMM Cash Flow Statement Summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange Rates
Investment case
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Key financials, USD mln
Portfolio NPV breakdown by segment
Share price performance*

7.3 XXI Century
Business overview
XXI Century portfolio
XXI Century Income Statement Summary*, USD mln
XXI Century Balance Sheet Summary*, USD mln
XXI Century Cash Flow Statement Summary*, USD mln

8. Legal environment
Ownership
Mortgage financing
Leasing
Construction activities
Taxation

9. Appendices
Appendix A: TKS project DCF analysis, USD mln
Appendix B: TMM project DCF analysis, USD mln
Appendix C: XXI Century project DCF analysis, USD mln

10. Investment ratings

 





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