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Ukrainian Railway Machinery / Украинское железнодорожное машиностроение

Автор: Конкорд Консалтинг - 28.01.2008 - 59 стр.
ID (номер): 2624
Версия для печати


Дата выхода:28.01.2008
Количество страниц:59
Язык отчета:Английский
Способ предоставления:В электронном виде
Цена:2 500 грн.
Оплата:безналичные
Доставка:бесплатно, e-mail



Mid-term outlook: High demand & low competition

The five domestic railcar producers continued to benefit from excess demand in the insulated CIS market, posting 48% yoy higher aggregated sales in 9M07. Demand is being stimulated by a rise in freight transportation (up 4-8% CAGR over the last three years), high replacement needs (up to xx% of CIS freight railcars are past their recommended service life), and the emergence of new financing channels such as leasing. We estimate demand for railcars will remain robust until 2011 and forecast xx% increase in the aggregated revenues of the five Ukrainian railcar producers over 2007-2010.

Long-term outlook: Diversification is an issue

Having a broad product mix will gain additional importance in 3-4 years when new railcar production capacities come on-stream in the CIS (increasing production capacity +xx% from 2006). Mariupol Heavy Machinery (xx% of sales are from wagons) is best protected from volatility in demand for railcars, while the revenues of pure wagon producer Dniprovahonmash are likely to decline after 2010.

Corporate activity will keep the sector hot

We expect to see share offerings by Ukrainian railcar producers in the next 12-18 months. All five stocks in our coverage are to be watched closely. Consolidation will become more visible, both domestically and cross-border. Ukrainian wagon manufacturers' growing importance on the CIS market makes them attractive takeover targets for Russian players – the main candidates are Azovmash (Azovzahalmash and Mariupol Heavy Machinery) and Dniprovahonmash.

High margins deserve premium valuations

After triple digit performance in 2007, Ukrainian railcar makers trade close to their emerging market peers at around 1.2x EV/Sales '07. With low price-elasticity of CIS demand for railcars in the midterm, Ukrainian producers will keep their EBITDA margins 1.2-1.4x above the EM peer average, justifying premium valuations by EV/Sales.

Среднесрочная перспектива: Высокий спрос и слабая конкуренция

5 отечественных производителей вагонов продолжают извлекать выгоду из избыточного спроса на замкнутом рынке СНГ, отмечая средний рост продаж за 9 месяцев 2007 на 48% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года. Спрос стимулируется ростом в перевозке грузов, высокими потребностями в замене старых  вагонов, и появлением новых финансовых каналов, таких как лизинг. Мы оцениваем, что спрос на вагоны будет расти до 2011 и пронозируем рост общих доходов украинских вагоностроителей в 2007-2010.

Долгосрочная перспектива: Потребность в диверсификации

Наличие широкого товарного микса будет иметь особую важность через 3-4 года, когда будут запущены новые производственные линии в СНГ. Мариупольский завод тяжелого машиностроения наиболее защищен от непостоянства спроса на вагоны, тогда, как доходы Днепровагонмаша,  специализирующегося только на вагонах, скорее всего, снизятся после 2010.

Корпоративная активность будет поддерживать состояние отрасли

Мы ожидаем увидеть размещение акций украинскими производителями вагонов в ближайшие 12-18 месяцев. Следует следить за новостями всех пяти публично торгуемых компаний сектора. Растущая важность украинских вагоностроителей для рынка СНГ делает их привлекательными целями для поглощения для русских игроков – главными кандидатами являются Азовмаш (объединяющий Азовзагальмаш и Мариупольский завод тяжелого машиностроения) и Днепровагонмаш.

Высокие прибыли заслуживают качественной оценки

После динамики, исчисляемой трезначными числами в 2007, украинские вагоностроители торгуются на уровне 1.2x EV/Sales '07, вплотную к схожим компаниям на развивающихся рынках. Благодаря неэластичности спроса по цене, украинские производители удержат показатель EBITDA в среднем в 1.2-1.4 раза выше схожих компаний на развивающихся рынках, оправдывая солидную оценку по EV/Sales.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Investment Thesis
Investment summary
Investment opportunities
Stock Market Monitor
Ready for the third wave

2. Railcar market overview
Railcar demand snapshot
PICKING UP STEAM, GROWTH PROJECTED AT 10% CAGR THROUGH 2012
CIS DEMAND SPLIT
View on demand: 3x3
Three orders drivers
Three freight railcar consumers
Three main countries
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
Implications of CIS market insulation
Wagon producers’ pricing power
Assembly Parts: Deficit of casting
WHERE HAS ALL THE CASTING GONE?
OTHER INPUTS
Competition and supply
Main market players
Competitive advantages
SPECIALIZATION
QUALITY
State protection of Russian producers

3. Consolidation in the railway industry
Corporate evolution
All for IPO, Few for takeover
AWASH WITH TALK OF IPOs
ACQUISITIONS IN THE OFFING?
Profitability analysis

4. Company Profiles

4.1 Azovzahalmash
Key forecasts
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary

4.2 Mariupol Heavy Machinery
Key forecasts
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary
AZGM & MZVM: Two companies in one plant
Shareholder structure of Azovmash
Reconsolidation of Azovmash?
AZGM vs MZVM: What is the difference?
Production specialization: AZGM focuses on railcars
Differences in ownership structure: AZGM looks like a favorite

4.3 Stakhaniv Wagon
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
The fastest growing Ukrainian wagon producer
Capital increases
CapEx program to support production growth
Relaunching production of metal construction
Casting used to limit growth
Part of KRAZ holding?
Key forecasts
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary

4.4 Kryukiv Wagon
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
Corporate changes expected
Product mix
Key forecasts
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary

4.5 Dniprovahonmash
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
New owner, new financial outlook
Product mix
Key forecasts
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary

5. Appendices
Appendix A: Comparative valuation
Appendix B: Key peer financials
Appendix C: Railcar specifications and functions

6. Disclosures
7. Investment Ratings


CHARTS

Stocks Performance, 12M
Sector Performance, 12M
Indices Performance, 12M
Upside, %
Azovzahalmash. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes,  USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes,  USD mln
Dniprovahonmash. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes,  USD mln
Stakhaniv Wagon. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes,  USD mln
Kryukiv Wagon. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes,  USD mln
Railcar producers' performance and trading volumes, 2007
Average multiples for railcar producers, 2008E
Demand for freight railcars, ths units
Freight wagons’ demand split, ths units, 2007-2015
Cargo transportation breakdown, mln mt 2006, %
Growth in freight turnover and GDP
Percentage of railcar fleet past service life
Russian leasing market for rolling stock, USD bln
Consumers’ activity in cargo wagons purchase in CIS
Cargo carried by rail in Ukraine and Russia in 2006
FSU freight railcar split, 2006
Russian freight railcar fleet evolution forecast, ths units
Ukrainian freight railcar fleet evolution forecast, ths units
Kazakhstan freight railcars fleet evolution forecast, ths units
Average tank car wagon, casting and rolled steel price growth, YTD 2007 as of Nov.1
Ukrainian railway producers: market shares in CIS
Railcar output by Ukrainian and Russian producers, ths units
Azovzahalmash sales split, USD mln
Azovzahalmash. Profitability forecasts
Azovzahalmash. Valuation results, USD per share
Mariupol Heavy Machinery sales breakdown, USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery. Profitability forecasts
Mariupol Heavy Machinery valuation results, USD per share
Ownership structure of Azovmash-related companies
Sales split of AZGM and MZVM, USD ths
Ukrainian railcar producers’ sales growth yoy
Stakhaniv Wagon. Sales breakdown, USD mln
Stakhaniv Wagon. Profitability forecasts
Stakhaniv Wagon. Valuation results, USD per share
Kryukiv Wagon. Shareholders structure, 2006
Kryukiv Wagon. Sales split, 2006
Kryukiv Wagon. Sales breakdown, USD mln
Kryukiv Wagon. Profitability forecasts
Kryukiv Wagon. Valuation results, USD per share
Dniprovahonmash. Sales, EBITDA and net income, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash. Sales destination
Dniprovahonmash. Sales forecasts, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash. Profitability forecasts
Dniprovahonmash. Valuation results, USD per share


TABLES

Key ratios
Key financials, 9M07, USD mln
State railway programs
Main CIS casting producers
CIS wagon producer profiles
CIS railcar producers capacity outlook, ths units
Ownership of Ukrainian railcar producers
Ukrainian railcar producers financials
Ukrainian railcar producers’ expenses, common size
Azovzahalmash. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Azovzahalmash. DCF Sensitivity analysis
Azovzahalmash. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Azovzahalmash. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Mariupol Heavy Machinery. DCF sensitivity analysis
Mariupol Heavy Machinery Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Forecast revisions for Stakhaniv Wagon
Stakhaniv Wagon DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Stakhaniv Wagon  DCF Sensitivity analysis
Stakhaniv Wagon. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Stakhaniv Wagon. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Kryukiv Wagon’s production line
Kryukiv Wagon. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Kryukiv Wagon. DCF Sensitivity analysis
Kryukiv Wagon. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Kryukiv Wagon. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Dniprovahonmash.  DCF Sensitivity analysis
Dniprovahonmash. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Comparative valuation
Key peer financials

 

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