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Ukrainian Automotive Industry / Автомобильная промышленность в Украине

Автор: Конкорд Консалтинг - 11.04.2008 - 64 стр.
ID (номер): 2636
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Дата выхода:11.04.2008
Количество страниц:64
Язык отчета:Английский
Способ предоставления:В электронном виде
Цена:2 500 грн.
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Ukraine's solid macroeconomic backdrop (average growth over the last three years in real GDP at 6% and real disposable income at 16%) is providing the spark to the domestic automotive sector. On the mid-term horizon is the creation of larger auto holdings, which are likely to involve all traded names, to mixed benefit. Taking the holdings public will serve as catalysts. Our top pick in the segment is Bogdan Automobile Plant, on the strength of its current expansion plan, which we believe is not fully factored into its stock price.

Ukrainian macroeconomic backdrop paves the road

Over 2005-2007, the rapid expansion in the Ukrainian economy (real GDP growth at 6% CAGR) and accelerating transportation needs (freight turnover doubled) led to a 156% upshift in new car sales. We expect that in the mid-term, the Ukrainian automotive sector will enjoy double digit growth based on the sound outlook for real disposable income (13% annual growth over 2008-09), real GDP (7% annual growth over 2008-09), and freight and passenger transportation.

WTO & dependence on suppliers: margin constrictors

Two key factors will restrict Ukrainian car producers' margins: the 15%-25% drop in import duties for cars in 2009 as part of Ukraine's WTO accession accords and the high bargaining power of auto part suppliers. Meanwhile, with less dependence on the supply chain, truck producers (importing only xx% of parts vs xx% for car makers) will be better able to defend their margins.

Holdings' strategic plans rife with catalysts

Last year Bogdan and AvtoKrAZ announced strategic plans to create holdings and thereafter to take the new structures public. We expect IPOs by these automotive holdings over 2008-2009 to provide catalysts for underlying stocks. The plans of UkrAvto's owner to create a car distribution holding, in our view, carry high risk of asset stripping or dilution at UkrAvto.


Солидное макроэкономическое состояние Украины (средний рост реального ВВП 6% за последние три года) обеспечило всплеск отечественного автомобилестроения. В среднесрочной перспективе мы ожидаем создания больших авто холдингов. В укрупнении могут вполне участвовать любые из торгуемых компаний. Публичное размещение холдингов послужит катализатором для отрасли. Среди торгуемых акций мы отдаем предпочтение автомобильному заводу «Богдан» (LUAZ), чей текущий план расширения, по нашим оценкам, не полностью заложен в цену акции.

За 2005-2007, быстрое развитие украинской экономики (средний годовой темп роста реального ВВП был 6%) и увеличение спроса на перевозку (грузооборот удвоился) привело к повышению продаж новых машин на 156%.

Мы ожидаем, что в среднесрочном периоде, украинская автомобилестроительная отрасль испытает рост, выраженным двухзначным числом. В основе наших прогнозов лежат положительные перспективы реального располагаемого дохода (годовой рост 13% за 2008-2009), реального ВВП (7% годовой рост за 2008-2009), и грузовых и пассажирских перевозок.

Два ключевых фактора будут ограничивать рентабельность украинских автомобилестроителей: снижение импортных пошлин на автомобили на 15%-20%, вызванное вступлением Украины в ВТО и сложность переговоров с поставщиками автомобильных деталей. В то же время, производители грузовиков, меньше зависящие от зарубежных поставок, выглядят сильнее в плане защиты собственной рентабельности.

Стратегические планы холдингов, изобилующие катализаторами
В прошлом году Богдан и АвтоКрАЗ объявили стратегические планы о создании холдингов и последующем публичном размещении новых структур. Мы ожидаем первичное публичное размещение одним из автомобильных холдингов в 2008-2009. Планы владельца УкрАвто о создании автомобильного холдинга, на наш взгляд, несут высокие риски для акционеров, связанные с разбавлением активов УкрАвто.

CONTENTS

1. Investment thesis
Investment summary
Ukrainian macroeconomic backdrop paves the road
WTO & dependence on suppliers: margin constrictors
Holdings' strategic plans rife with catalysts
Recommendations
Stock performance
Stock performance, 12M*
Trading volumes, USD ths
Investment cases
Bogdan. Valuation results, USD PER SHARE
AvtoKrAZ. Valuation results, USD PER SHARE
UkrAvto. Valuation results, USD PER SHARE
Stock market monitor
Sector introduction

2. Market overview

2.1 Behind the wheel: market drivers
Europe's top 10 car markets in 2007, mln units
#1 economic growth
Passenger and freight turnover growth
Nominal wages vs. new car sales
Car penetration and GDP PPP per capita in selected countries, 2006
#2 easier auto financing
Auto lending dynamics in Ukraine
Transportation equipment leasing in Ukraine, USD mln
#3 replacement needs
Age structure of vehicles in Ukraine in 2007
Replacement forecast: Vehicles 1997 and older to be replaced by 2015
Fees and taxes on used imported cars, USD/100 cm3 of engine capacity
Registration fees for cars more than eight  years old      
Excise taxes on cars more than five years old

2.2 Car sector
Demand trends
Sales of new cars in Ukraine, ths units
Ukrainian car market development, mln units
Ukrainian car producers
Ukrainian car market split by producers, 2007
Ukrainian car producers (2007 Production/Capacity, ths units)
Market share of ten most popular brands in Ukraine, 2007
Share of cars sold in Ukraine by price segment, 2007
Ukrainian car producers share of the domestic new car market

2.3 Bus sector
Demand trends
Ukrainian bus market in 2007
Split by class
Split by average price
Ukrainian bus market development, ths units
Sales of new buses in Ukraine, ths units
Ukrainian bus producers
Ukrainian bus market split by producers, 2007
Ukrainian bus producers
Market share of ten most popular brands in Ukraine, 2007

2.4 Truck sector
Demand trends
Ukrainian truck market in 2007
Split by producers
Split by capacity
Demand for new Ukrainian trucks, ths units
Light trucks 3.6-8 tons                                                       
Heavy trucks: >16 tons
Ukrainian truck market development, ths units
Light trucks 3.6-8 tons                                                    
Heavy trucks: >16 tons
Ukrainian truck producers
Market share of ten most popular brands in Ukraine, 2007
Light trucks: 3.6-8 tons                                                       
Main heavy truck producers in CIS

2.5 Supply chain & WTO accession: margin restrictors
Raw materials & assembly parts
WTO entrance: Import duties set to lower
Ukrainian import duties on automobiles
Summary

3. Company profiles

3.1 Bogdan Automobile Plant
Bogdan's share in new vehicle sales in Ukraine, 2007, by units
Probable process of Bogdan's consolidation
Increasing capacity at Bogdan, number of vehicles
Production forecasts, units
Profitability forecasts
DCF output for base scenario, UAH mln, as of April 2009
Comparative valuation
Valuation summary
Valuation results, USD per share
Financial Statements, IFRS
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln

3.2 AvtoKrAZ
Catalyst on the horizon: IPO
AvtoKrAZ sales structure by segment, 2007
Sales destinations, ths units
Officially reported data remains opaque
Key forecasts
Forecast revisions for AvtoKrAZ
Truck production and capacity utilization
Profitability forecasts
Implied prices by DCF scenarios, USD per share
DCF output of base case scenario, UAH mln, as of April
Sensitivity analysis
Valuation results, USD per share
Financial Statements, UAS*
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln

3.3 UkrAvto
UkrAvto company (AVTO) ? UkrAvto brand
Estimated structure of Tariel Vasadze automotive business
Financial data and key ratios, 2008
Risk of dilution
Ukrainian car dealers, 2007
Revenue structure of UkrAvto (AVTO)
Key estimates for UkrAvto
Valuation results, USD per share

3.4 KrASZ Ltd
CJSC Communal Transport Plant (Lviv Bus)
OJSC Cherkasy Bus
CJSC Eurocar
CJSC Zaporizhya Automobile Plant

4. Appendices
Appendix A: Bogdan production line
Appendix B: AvtoKrAZ production line

5. Analyst Certification
6. Investment Ratings
7. Disclaimer





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