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Ukrainian Electricity Distribution / Дистрибуция элетричества в Украине

Автор: Конкорд Консалтинг - 16.07.2008 - 85 стр.
ID (номер): 2643
Версия для печати


Дата выхода:16.07.2008
Количество страниц:85
Язык отчета:Английский
Способ предоставления:В электронном виде
Цена:5 000 грн.
Оплата:безналичные
Доставка:бесплатно, e-mail



Ukrainian Electricity Distribution is state regulated. The 28 licensed distribution & supply companies account for xx% of electricity distribution and xx% of electricity supply in Ukraine. Underinvestment has led to a high level of worn out equipment in the sector – the regulator, NERC, has approved a double in investments to upgrade fixed assets in 2008.

The key bottom line driver for the future is tariff reform scheduled for 2009: transition from cost+ tariff policy to a RAB (regulatory asset base) policy.

In this report, we widened our set of valuation tools to more accurately estimate the companies' values under the new tariff policy. We use EV/Transformer Capacity, EV/RAB, P/B, EV/EBITDA multiples to value the 21 biggest electricity distribution companies.

Дистрибуция электричества в Украине регулируется государством. Доля 28 компаний (облэнерго и две специализированные компании), составляет 97% дистрибуции и 80% поставок электричества в Украине. Недостаточный уровень капитальных инвестиций привел к высокому уровню изношенности оборудования – регулятор, НКРЕ, одобрил удвоение инвестиций для модернизации основных средств в 2008 году.
Ключевым фактор, влияющим на прибыльность облэнерго в будущем, является тарифная реформа, запланированная на 2009: переход от тарифной политики «затраты+» к политике, ориентированной на RAB.
В данном отчете мы расширили наш набор методов оценки стоимости компаний, с учетом введения новых тарифов. Мы использовали показатели EV/Transformer Capacity, EV/RAB, P/B, EV/EBITDA для оценки 21 наибольших компаний по дистрибуции электричества.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Investment summary

2. Stock market and corporate governance
Privatization targets trade more actively
DTEK is likely to drive the market
Political loggerheads
Corporate conflicts wind down
Dividend policies: No changes

3. Payment collection, grid losses problems no more
We stop discriminating against poor-performing Oblenergos
Grid losses
Payment collection
Cash flow distribution

4. Tariff policy: Regulated profits are growing
CapEx growth/profit increase link
EBITDA forecasts for 2008
Tariff reform: lots of uncertainties

5. 1Q08 Financial analysis
2.5x bottom line surge in 1Q08
1Q08 margins touch historical maximum
Profitability: non-industrial Oblenergos have an edge
Debt issue
Adjustments of debt

6. Valuation
Valuation methods
EV/Sales and EV/Electricity
EV/EBITDA
EV/RAB and P/B
EV/Transformer capacity
Target price estimation
Top picks selection

7. Appendix: Company profiles

7.1 Cherkasyoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.2 Chernihivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.3 Chernivtsioblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.4 Dniprooblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.5 Donetskoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.6 Energougol
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.7 Kharkivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.8 Khersonoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.9 Khmelnitskoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.10 Kirovohradoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.11 Krymenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.12 Lvivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.13 Mykolaivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.14 Odessaoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.15 Poltavaoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.16 Prykarpatoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.17 Sevastopolenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.18 Sumyoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart

ОПРОС

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