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Ukrainian Ferroalloy

ID (артикул):
2587
Количество страниц:
29
Язык отчета:
Английский
Дата выпуска:
09.02.2007
Способ предоставления:
В электронном виде
Формат исследования:
Word

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Investment Case

2. Operating Performance in 10M06
Production
Ukrainian Export4
Product Mix Transition

3. Ferroalloy Market Outlook
Global Demand To Rise Driven by Steel Expansion
Ukrainian Consumption Estimated To Grow xx% by 2010

4. Supply: Shortage Forecasted by 2009
China’s Production Slow Down Brought on a Global Shortfall
More Capacity in 2009-2010 Will Restore The Balance
Ukraine Production To Increase Slowly

5.Prices Forecast: Deficit Favors An Increase
Prices Lifted In Late 2006
Revised Prices Forecast

6. Financials Recovered in 9M06

7. Case Study 1: Ukraine, Resource-Rich Player
Manganese Ore is a Key Issue
Ore Price Hikes Shock Stand-alone Producers

8. Case Study 2: Privat – New Manganese Giant
Privat A Global Player: What Next?

9. Valuation
Zaporizhya Ferroalloy (Base Case Scenario)
Stakhaniv Ferroalloy (Base Case Scenario)
Nikopol Ferroalloy (Base Case Scenario)
Peer Comparison

10. Company Profiles

10.1 Zaporizhya Ferroalloy
Improving Financial Performance.
Stable Output in 2006: As Expected.
Financial Statements

10.2 Stakhaniv Ferroalloy
Financials Continue to Recover.
Output Declined in 2006; Expected To Grow in 2007.
Modernization Continues in 2007.
Financial Statements

10.3 Nikopol Ferroalloy
Future Ownership is Not Clear.
Production Grew in 2006.
Poor Reported Financials.

Appendix 1: Key Financials
Appendix 2: Peer Descriptions
Appendix 3: Privat-related Ferroalloy Assets
Appendix 4: Global Industry Projects

CHARTS

Ukrainian Ferroalloy Production, ths mt
Alloys Consumption, mln mt*
Demand by Region, %
Ukrainian Bulk Ferroalloys Consumption, mln mt
China’s Mn Alloys Export
Manganese Alloys Balance
Hong Kong Alloy Prices, USD/mt
Mn Price: S. Africa To Japan
Alloys production costs
DCF-Implied Prices, USD per share
Modelling Assumptions: EBIDTA margin, %

TABLES
Alloy Exports in 10M06, ths mt
ZFER and SFER Production in 10M06, ths mt
Average Ferroalloy Prices Forecast Revision, USD/mt
Ukrainian Ferroalloys Reported Financials, USD mln
Privat vs. Other CIS-based Players in the Sector in 2006
Basic Assumptions Revision
Zaporizhya Ferroalloy. Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Sensitivity Analysis: Implied Share Price, USD
Stakhaniv Ferroalloy. Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
NFER Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Sensitivity Analysis: Implied Share Price, USD
Based On Reported Financials
Valuation on Production Based Metrics
Financial Statements

 

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