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Ukrainian Sugar: Dakor

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Major Ukrainian sugar producer, Dakor is in a solid position to expand its share of the market in the midst of industry consolidation, which will be the name of the game for the next few years. In April 2007 the company first tapped the equity market, floating 20% of its shares. This year, Dakor is planning to invest net proceeds of USD 17.5 mln into modernization of its production facilities and a 14% increase of their daily capacities. We estimate Dakor’s 12M target price at USD __ per share, a __ upside to the current market price.


1. Investment Case
On-going vertical integration to reduce production costs.
Investing in production efficiency.
Ready for raw cane sugar imports.
IPO plans.

2. Ukraine’s Sugar Market

2.1 Market Capacity
Demand supported by stable domestic consumption
Industrial consumption outpaces the population's intake
Bioethanol as a potential demand driver

2.2 Players
Consolidation – the future of Ukraine’s sugar industry
Large producers increase lobbying power

2.3 Industry Specifics: Seasonality

2.4 Regulation
New quota system to benefit large producers
Small players ousted from the market by sugar price floor
Tax and interest privileges in effect until 2010
Agricultural land expected to become tradable in 2009
Prohibitive import tariffs to stay

2.5 Playing by WTO Rules
Accession terms favorable for Ukraine
Sugar producers to partially switch to raw cane sugar feedstock
Inefficient beet producers will decrease beet supplies

2.6 Price & Volume Outlook

3. Company Overview

3.1 Strategy
Further vertical integration
Improving efficiency of sugar beet production
Energy saving measures
Product mix expansion
IPO plans

3.2 Profile
Business Development
Market share to double by 2010
Capacities ensure room for production growth
Raw cane sugar as an alternative feedstock
Land acquisition continues
Gas-saving technologies to be introduced starting from 2007
Customers to become more diversified
Bioethanol production to diversify business portfolio

3.3 Legal Structure

4. Financial Analysis
Financial Debt

5. Risks
Major Risks Faced by Dakor

6. Valuation
Valuation Summary
Model Assumptions

7. Financial statements*


Ukrainian sugar demand & production of beet sugar
Industrial vs. population’s consumption of sugar
Breakdown of industrial sugar consumption, 2005
Production of confectionaries, ths mt
Ukraine’s sugar market structure by production, 2006
Sugar production industry structure: Ukraine vs. World
Poland: Sugar mills vs. Processing period duration
Daily capacities, ths mt of beets
Distribution of mills by days in operation in 2006
In-house beets supplies of the largest sugar producers in 2006*
Sugar prices in Ukraine, USD/mt
Dakor’s business structure
Dakor’s sugar sales and net revenue
Dakor’s sugar production costs breakdown, 2006
Improvement of Beet Production Efficiency
Dakor’s sugar production by source of input, %
Production costs of beet sugar vs raw cane sugar processing*
Dakor’s land under lease, ths ha
Consumer base, 2006
Sales structure, 2006
Dakor’s structure*
Dakor revenue breakdown, 2005 and 2006, %
Implied MCap, USD mln


Market data
12M target
Ratios 2006
Key financials, USD mln
Ukrainian sugar balance, ths mt
Processing capacities, mt of beets per day
CapEx: Major expenditures planned for 2007
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Sensitivity Analysis: Equity Value, USD mln
Sensitivity Analysis: Equity Value, USD mln
Peer Valuation
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Cash Flow Statement Summary, USD mln



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