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Ukrainian Coal Machinery

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After showing its first signs of recovery since the 1990s over the last three years, the Ukrainian coal machinery sector risks a sharp slowdown. While in 2003-2007, the industry's domestic state and private customers almost tripled expenditures on coal mining equipment, they too will succumb to the slumping tide of the economy: we forecast Ukrainian real GDP growth to fall to 5.3% in 2008 and -1% in 2009

Although short-term concerns are mounting, we see fundamental drivers for the domestic coal industry in the next 5-10 years: (1) Ukraine’s strong need to cut its gas dependence on Russia to improve energy security; (2) and rising Ukrainian demand for coking coal from steelmakers, backed by rebounding demand for steel. Ukrainian steel producers, over the last month, have been confirming expansion programs, though they acknowledge 1-2 year delays

We value four public companies in the market - Dongirmash, Druzhkivka Machinery, Svitlo Shakhtarya, Yasynuvatsky Machinery, - using DCF model and peer valuation. When assigning target price recommendations, we took into account P&L quality, liquidity and parent group support.


1. Investment thesis
2. Industry summary
4. SHORT-TERM government action
6. Valuation summary
7. Market overview
8. Short-term industry concerns
9. Growth constrained by economic weakness
10. Metallurgy: Large customer faces problems
11. Political turmoil adds more risks
12. Government offers assistance to coal industry
13. Long-term outlook: sector will recover
14. Government upgraded coal extraction targets
15. ENERGY coal: Key to ukraine’s energy independence
17. Expenditures on mining equipment must double to support at least current extraction
18. SCM started consolidation of MB
19. Needed steps for SCM to complete UMBH
20. UMBH: A holding with both vertical and horizontal integration

21. Company profiles
22. Druzhkivka Machinery
23. Monopoly producer of roof supports in Ukraine, SCM’s preferred coal machinery asset
24. Modernization program
25. Key forecasts
27. Svitlo Shakhtarya
28. Ukrainian scraping conveyors monopoly
29. Domestic operations: outlook
30. Highest profitability among Ukrainian coal machinery producers
31. Key forecasts

33. Yasynuvatsky Machinery
34. Largest Ukrainian coal machinery exporter
35. Acquisition target
36. Forecast revisions
37. Dongirmash
38. Most diversified producer in the sector
39. Appendices
39.1 Appendix A: Comparative valuation
39.2 Appendix B: Key peer financials
39.3 Appendix C: Our view on sector development: two phases
39.4 Appendix D: Private vs. state owned mines: A historical comparison
39.5 Appendix E: P&L quality is low
39.6 Appendix F: Stock market monitor
39.7 Analyst certification
40. Investment ratings


Druzhkivka Machinery
Svitlo Shakhtarya
Yasynuvatsky Machinery
Real GDP growth, %
Equipment expenditures by Ukr. mines, breakdown by driver, USD mn
Planned coal extraction in Ukraine, mln mt
Yearly average gas price at Ukrainian-Russian border, USD/mcm
Steam coal demand from Ukrainian generation companies, mln mt
Coking coal demand in Ukraine, mln mt
Ukrainian coal extraction in 1985-2007, mln mt
Coal mines' average equipment expenditures, USD/mt of coal extracted
SCM coal machinery asset structure
Coal machinery assets sit atop SCM's energy & steel business chain
Sales structure, 2007
Revenues, USD mln
Sales structure, 2007
Revenues, USD mln
Sales structure
by country
Production output, USD mln
CapEx of Ukrainian coal mines, USD mln
Ukrainian producers' market share, %
Ukrainian state vs. private mines' equipment expenditures, USD/mt of coal extracted
Coal machinery sector EBITDA margins, 1H08


Production, units
Druzhkivka Machinery DCF output, UAH mln, as of November
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Production output, units
Svitlo Shakhtarya DCF output, UAH mln, as of November
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Roadheader production
Forecast revisions. Sales
Forecast revisions. Profitability
Yasynuvatsky Machinery DCF output, UAH mln, as of November
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Summary of two phases before and after mine privatizations
Ukrainian mines’ profile
Ukrainian coal machinery financials
Ukrainian coal machinery expenses, common size

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